Gold Ends Another Brutal Week at $4,524 — The Iran Uranium Bombshell, Hawkish Fed, and What Next Week Brings
Gold is trading near $4,524 per ounce this Friday May 22 — down roughly 0.42% on the day and holding near its lowest level since late March. The metal has now lost approximately 14% since the Iran war began on February 28. It has lost around 19% from January’s all-time high of $5,595. And this week delivered two fresh blows that kept gold pinned in the low $4,500s despite Trump claiming the US is in the “final stages” of peace talks with Iran.
Blow one: the FOMC minutes. Published Wednesday May 20, the minutes from the May 7 Federal Reserve meeting confirmed what the market feared. Fed officials specifically discussed the conditions under which a rate hike would be appropriate, with several noting that “if inflation did not show clear signs of moderating in the coming months, further tightening may be warranted.” The dollar surged to a six-week high. Gold fell to $4,499 on Monday before recovering slightly. The minutes reaffirmed the market’s pricing of 97.4% probability of no cut in June and a rising probability of a hike by December.
Blow two: Iran’s Supreme Leader. On Thursday May 21, Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had issued a formal directive: near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iranian soil under any circumstances. This directly contradicts the US position — Trump personally assured Israel that any peace deal would include Iran’s highly enriched uranium leaving the country. Netanyahu has stated he will not consider the war over without this. The directive slammed the door on the most fundamental US demand. Oil jumped 3.4% on the news. Gold fell toward $4,500.
Despite both blows, gold has held the $4,490 to $4,540 support zone for three straight days — a sign of resilience at this technical level. Trump’s statement that talks are in “final stages” is also providing a partial floor. But his simultaneous warning of “things that are a little bit nasty” if no deal is reached keeps the threat of renewed military action live.
Today’s data: US PMI for Manufacturing and Services releases this morning — the first May read on economic activity. University of Michigan May inflation expectations also publish today. If PMI is weak and Michigan expectations fall, the stagflation case builds and gold finds footing. If both are strong, dollar pressure continues.
Next week: US Q1 GDP data on Thursday May 28 alongside initial jobless claims. These will confirm whether the economy is genuinely holding up or beginning to buckle under the oil shock.
Today’s prices: 24K — $145.61/gram | 22K — $133.48/gram | 21K — $127.41/gram All prices USD. Indicative only. Please confirm in store.
