Gold Holds Firm Near $4,050 on Fed Day — Even as Iran Reignites the War with a Missile Strike

Gold is holding remarkably firm just under $4,100 per ounce this Wednesday July 29, trading around $4,026 to $4,090, on a day packed with two major events pulling in opposite directions. This afternoon, the Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting and announces its interest rate decision. And this morning, the fragile pause in the US-Iran war collapsed, as Iran fired ballistic missiles at US forces in the region. That gold is holding steady amid both is itself the story — and it reveals how balanced the forces acting on the metal have become.

Start with the war, which reignited dramatically overnight. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired multiple ballistic missiles at American troops stationed in the Middle East in what US officials described as an attempted surprise attack. US Central Command confirmed that its forces shot down all the incoming missiles. The strike ended a days-long lull in military action that had begun late last week, when both sides paused their attacks and oil prices tumbled. Oil surged again on the news: West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 4.7% to around $82.93 a barrel, and Brent climbed more than 3% to $85.75.

Here is why gold barely moved despite this escalation. The war applies two opposing forces to the gold price simultaneously. On one side, renewed conflict drives oil higher, which raises inflation concerns, which increases the likelihood of higher interest rates — and higher rates weigh on non-yielding gold. On the other side, geopolitical tensions send some investors toward gold as a safe haven, supporting the price. These two forces have been roughly cancelling each other out, which is why gold has been remarkably steady, holding above $4,000 for two weeks even as the war has swung between escalation and pause.

The afternoon’s main event is the Federal Reserve. The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% — roughly 66% to 71% expect no change — though about 30% price in a hike. But the real event is Warsh’s tone. Because he declined to submit his own economic projection at the June meeting, his words this afternoon will be scrutinised for signals about September, where markets currently price a roughly 77% chance of a hike. A hawkish message could push gold toward its 2026 lows near $3,941; a more dovish tilt could let gold extend beyond $4,100.

For buyers, gold near $4,050 is about 28% below January’s record of $5,597 and up roughly 19% over the past year. It has been holding on dip-buying around the psychologically important $4,000 level. The structural floor is firm: central banks bought a net 41 tonnes in May and 244 tonnes in the first quarter, and a World Gold Council survey found 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to rise over the coming year. Also key: June PCE inflation data — the Fed’s preferred gauge — arrives tomorrow morning, and may move gold as much as today’s decision.

Today’s prices: 24K — $130.05/gram | 22K — $119.20/gram | 21K — $113.80/gram

All prices USD. Wednesday July 29 indicative. Volatile market — Fed decision today. Confirm in store before purchase.