Gold Lost 4% This Week. Here Is Every Move, Every Cause, and Every Reason Next Week Could Be Different.
Gold closes this Saturday May 16 at $4,539 per ounce — down 4% for the week, the single worst weekly performance since the Iran war began in late February. For buyers who watched the price move from $4,720 last Friday to $4,539 today, it has been a bruising seven days. Understanding each move precisely is the only way to know whether this week’s low is a floor or a preview of further decline.
Monday May 12: Gold opened near $4,750, recovered from the previous weekend’s Trump rejection of Iran’s peace offer. Traders were positioned cautiously ahead of CPI. The price was stable — the calm before a storm that arrived that afternoon. April CPI printed at 3.8% year-on-year, above the 3.7% consensus and the highest since May 2023. Gold fell to $4,707. Markets fully priced out any 2026 rate cut. The dollar strengthened.
Tuesday–Wednesday: PPI for April followed with its biggest surge since early 2022. Gold fell further toward $4,680. India simultaneously raised gold import tariffs from 6% to 15%, removing one of the world’s largest retail gold markets from near-term demand. The Empire State Manufacturing index for May surged to 19.5 — far above the 7.3 consensus — suggesting the US economy is not collapsing even under oil-inflation pressure. That killed any hope of a Fed pivot. Rate hike probability increased.
The summit outcome: Trump and Xi concluded their talks Friday afternoon. The joint readout included one sentence that could change everything for gold: “The two sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy.” Xi told Trump he would not supply Iran with military equipment, that he wants to help broker a deal, and that China opposes any effort to militarise or toll the Strait. Chinese vessels reportedly began passing through Hormuz following a new understanding over Iranian management protocols. This is not a peace deal. But it is the strongest signal yet that China — Iran’s most powerful economic patron — is beginning to distance itself from Tehran’s position.
What next week means for gold: Three catalysts arrive. Wednesday May 20 brings the FOMC minutes from the May 7 meeting — the first official Fed communication since CPI and PPI confirmed the inflation surge. If the minutes show Fed officials discussing rate hike thresholds, gold tests $4,450 and possibly $4,380 support. If the minutes are balanced and cautious, gold stabilises. Thursday May 21 brings PMI data for May — the first read on whether the economy is still holding up in May despite oil. Friday May 22 brings University of Michigan inflation expectations. Combined with the Beijing summit’s Iran implications, these three releases make next week as pivotal as any in 2026
Today’s prices: 24K — $145.96/gram | 22K — $133.80/gram | 21K — $127.72/gram All prices USD. Saturday indicative rates. Markets reopen Monday.
